Royal Rumble Match

I was going to do an "odds of winning the Rumble" bit, but when I went to WWE.com to get a list of participants, they had done the exact same thing, so I'll just do it in free form. This is a really weak card, and that's not a good sign for Mania. The Rumble match itself will pop a buy rate on its own, but the relative lack of interest in the show itself is telling as to future interest. Based on the wrestlers announced, there are very few with a chance of winning. There isn't much of a chance with "surprises," either, so there are few candidates. There are a few who I refuse to completely count out, either because of their stature as a star or because they are getting a solid push that WWE might want to continue: Lashley, Chris Benoit, Chris Masters. Rob Van Dam I could conceive as well, although Dave openly laughing at that proposition makes it seem extremely unlikely. It's just that with him gone for so long, and with the fans always being behind him, he's one of the few guys they could really break out through Mania. They might do something with Shawn Michaels to let Vince screw him, but I don't expect that one either. That leaves 3 candidates: Randy Orton, Triple H and Rey Mysterio. Of those three, HHH is most likely in my mind, because he hasn't been put over that strong since his return and he unquestionably wants back to the top. It won't help the show any (although it probably won't hurt either), but they would be better off trying to get someone else over. Orton's also a possibility given he's probably challenging Angle at Mania, but I don't see HHH featuring Orton over himself. And then there's Rey, who is the best choice, and who they are teasing might win, but I don't expect to given Angle is a face on SD and they are intent on pushing Orton. One thing to watch for is Rey getting over huge even in losing. I think people will want him to win, and hopefully they will get the reaction where the fans are even hungrier for Rey in a more prominent spot in he barely loses, rather than them just being discouraged.