MLB Madness
Let’s play the game of compare two players.
First, Player 1:
Born 1973, 460 1/3 innings, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 52 saves, 107 holds
Last 2 years: 2.74 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 43 2/3 innings and 2.47 ERA/0.89 WHIP, 73 innings
Now, Player 2:
Born 1975, 381 1/3 innings, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 42 saves, 73 holds
Last 2 years: 2.28 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 87 innings and 2.43 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 70 1/3 innings
These seem like pretty similar players, no? Frankly, it’s pretty amazing how evenly they match up. Both were free agents going into this offseason. You would think that they would command very similar demand, given they have performed just about as well throughout their careers, they are close to the same age, and they have performed just about as well the past couple years.
Well, you would be wrong. Player 1 is Bob Howry, who signed a 3 year, $12 million contract. Player 2 is B.J. Ryan, who signed a 5 year, $47 million contract. This is insanity.
I’ve been a big fan of BJ Ryan for a long time. He was the guy that turned me on Mike Hargrove. I liked Hargrove and wanted to see him succeed as O’s manager, but the one thing that drove me nuts was his handling of the bullpen, where he liked to play the percentages every batter and just jerk in and out pitcher after pitcher. It particularly bugged me with BJ Ryan, who obviously had electric stuff, but would be sent out there one batter at a time 10 straight days and couldn’t get into any kind of rhythm. So I like BJ and I think it’s another sad indictment of the inept Orioles management that this guy is entering free agency when they could have locked him up for a fraction of that amount relatively recently.
That said, BJ Ryan is no better pitcher than Bob Howry. They’re very comparable players. They shouldn’t be commanding wildly different amounts of money, but they do. Part of it is this infatuation with “stuff.” I can excuse that away partly because you can at least rationalize that a guy with better stuff has more upside and could become more dominant. But there is a long history of finesse pitchers who have very successful careers, and relying more on stuff also seems to carry with it more downside. But the bigger issue is actually the save statistic. The dumbest statistic in the history of sports. The most overrated statistic in the history of sports. The most idiotic measurement of pitching success ever conceived. And yet general managers still rely on this stupid thing to dictate decisions.
See, BJ Ryan was a closer last year, and Bob Howry wasn’t. Never mind that Howry actually has more career saves than Ryan. Ryan closed last year, so he’s a closer, damn it. Howry didn’t, and so he’s a middle reliever now. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen, but a closer is some sort of rare jewel. Ryan was a middle reliever two years ago, and he pitched well. They moved him to the ninth inning rather than the eighth, and shockingly, he still pitched well. And somehow this made him much more valuable.
It seems to me one run given up is still one run given up regardless of whether it is in the eighth inning or the ninth. And your odds of winning are reduced the same amount either way. To me, a bullpen is about finding good pitchers. Some guys will have problems with the pressure of the fictional mantel of closer, but there’s pressure in preserving a one run lead in the seventh as well. If I’m a general manager, I’m signing guys that can pitch, not guys with that elusive save statistic. And a bad team like the Blue Jays blowing large quantities of money on a closer is idiotic.
Let me just beat down this point by bringing Pitcher 3 into the equation:
Born 1977, 1076 2/3 innings, 4.83 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 35 saves, 3 holds
Last 2 years: 3.92 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 20 2/3 innings and 3.13 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 92 innings
This guy clearly seems inferior to the other two, so he must get less money, right? Wrong. He’s Ryan Dempster, who signed a 3 year, $15.5 million contract with the Cubs because he was the “closer” last year and somehow managed to preserve leads with a 1.43 WHIP. Never mind the guy was 6.54/1.76 in 2003. He’s a closer, damn it, and everyone knows a crappy pitcher who you pitch in the ninth is worth more than a good pitcher you pitch in the eighth.
First, Player 1:
Born 1973, 460 1/3 innings, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 52 saves, 107 holds
Last 2 years: 2.74 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 43 2/3 innings and 2.47 ERA/0.89 WHIP, 73 innings
Now, Player 2:
Born 1975, 381 1/3 innings, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 42 saves, 73 holds
Last 2 years: 2.28 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 87 innings and 2.43 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 70 1/3 innings
These seem like pretty similar players, no? Frankly, it’s pretty amazing how evenly they match up. Both were free agents going into this offseason. You would think that they would command very similar demand, given they have performed just about as well throughout their careers, they are close to the same age, and they have performed just about as well the past couple years.
Well, you would be wrong. Player 1 is Bob Howry, who signed a 3 year, $12 million contract. Player 2 is B.J. Ryan, who signed a 5 year, $47 million contract. This is insanity.
I’ve been a big fan of BJ Ryan for a long time. He was the guy that turned me on Mike Hargrove. I liked Hargrove and wanted to see him succeed as O’s manager, but the one thing that drove me nuts was his handling of the bullpen, where he liked to play the percentages every batter and just jerk in and out pitcher after pitcher. It particularly bugged me with BJ Ryan, who obviously had electric stuff, but would be sent out there one batter at a time 10 straight days and couldn’t get into any kind of rhythm. So I like BJ and I think it’s another sad indictment of the inept Orioles management that this guy is entering free agency when they could have locked him up for a fraction of that amount relatively recently.
That said, BJ Ryan is no better pitcher than Bob Howry. They’re very comparable players. They shouldn’t be commanding wildly different amounts of money, but they do. Part of it is this infatuation with “stuff.” I can excuse that away partly because you can at least rationalize that a guy with better stuff has more upside and could become more dominant. But there is a long history of finesse pitchers who have very successful careers, and relying more on stuff also seems to carry with it more downside. But the bigger issue is actually the save statistic. The dumbest statistic in the history of sports. The most overrated statistic in the history of sports. The most idiotic measurement of pitching success ever conceived. And yet general managers still rely on this stupid thing to dictate decisions.
See, BJ Ryan was a closer last year, and Bob Howry wasn’t. Never mind that Howry actually has more career saves than Ryan. Ryan closed last year, so he’s a closer, damn it. Howry didn’t, and so he’s a middle reliever now. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen, but a closer is some sort of rare jewel. Ryan was a middle reliever two years ago, and he pitched well. They moved him to the ninth inning rather than the eighth, and shockingly, he still pitched well. And somehow this made him much more valuable.
It seems to me one run given up is still one run given up regardless of whether it is in the eighth inning or the ninth. And your odds of winning are reduced the same amount either way. To me, a bullpen is about finding good pitchers. Some guys will have problems with the pressure of the fictional mantel of closer, but there’s pressure in preserving a one run lead in the seventh as well. If I’m a general manager, I’m signing guys that can pitch, not guys with that elusive save statistic. And a bad team like the Blue Jays blowing large quantities of money on a closer is idiotic.
Let me just beat down this point by bringing Pitcher 3 into the equation:
Born 1977, 1076 2/3 innings, 4.83 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 35 saves, 3 holds
Last 2 years: 3.92 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 20 2/3 innings and 3.13 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 92 innings
This guy clearly seems inferior to the other two, so he must get less money, right? Wrong. He’s Ryan Dempster, who signed a 3 year, $15.5 million contract with the Cubs because he was the “closer” last year and somehow managed to preserve leads with a 1.43 WHIP. Never mind the guy was 6.54/1.76 in 2003. He’s a closer, damn it, and everyone knows a crappy pitcher who you pitch in the ninth is worth more than a good pitcher you pitch in the eighth.
posted by Todd Martin at 6:11 PM
4 Comments:
Right on with the save. It just amazes me how few people including so many in the know, like GMs and announcers still don't get this. Consider a game between Oakland and Boston in Fenway in the heat of the pennant race this year. Ken Macha's A's are tied going into the bottom of the tenth inning with two relief options: A well-rested Huston Street with a sub 2 ERA and Juan Cruz with a 6.00+ ERA. Both are warming in the bullpen and ready. But since it's a tie game and not a save situation, he brings in Cruz. The rest is predictable. Over at Baseball Prospectus, they've done a ton of work on this and it really is worth a look for those who haven't read it. Here's a link to just one example.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2603
As a Jays fan, I could go off for a while on this one. I hated Miguel Batista in the closer role this year (and in any role for that matter), so I wanted a change there. I would've been happy with Jason Frasor as the closer. He had one of the best, if not the best, inherited runners stranded numbers in all of baseball this year. I feel he still has tons of potential as well. Frasor also makes less than $350,000 a year.
I'd love to know how this contract was negotiated. Ryan has been a closer for one season. He was being targeted by the Yankees to be a stepup man behind the best closer in baseball.
Who started the bidding? Why did it get so high? Why is he making almost as much as Roy Halladay (4-years/$42M)? Did Ryan's agent actually convince the Jays he was worth as much as that? Pretty confusing to think about. Especially since JP wouldn't give Carlos Delgado what he wanted, and what the Jays desperately need most.
Thanks for the link, Phil. Good stuff. I thought the same thing when I was watching that game. Welcome, Steve! You can take solace in the fact that even though the Jays paid too much for Ryan, they are getting a heck of a pitcher who is going to be fun to watch on a more regular basis. He won't be worth the money, but he'll do well. This does make the Delgado negotiations more of a head scratcher, though, as you point out.
I've seen a lot of BJ Ryan over the years, and I always thought he did have good stuff. I guess it depends on what you mean by that. He's tall (6'6"), which frequently makes faster pitches even harder to get at, and he gets great movement on his slider. It's not like he relies on changing speeds a lot to fool hitters, and he's a good strikeout pitcher. Certainly compared to Billy Wagner his "stuff" isn't the best, though.
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