Saturday, April 28, 2007

More Draft Thoughts

So the Browns traded the 36th pick and next year's number one for the 23rd pick and selected Brady Quinn. It's nice they got their QB and the guy to protect him, but I don't get the NFL teams' draft value formulas. Frankly, I think they're idiotic. The guys at the top are way overrated. I'd rather have a pick around the 7 range than the 1 most years. You can get the best player at some position, and pay them a lot less money. There's no guarantee any of them will work out, and the top of the draft is usually just ordered based on need. I'll take the cheaper player and the cap room who has just as much of a shot at being a great player. The NBA draft for sure should have a premium at the top, because that's about getting the one transcendent star. That's not the nature of the NFL. And then I think these formulas way overvalue current picks. I just do not get why a 2nd round pick now is worth more than a 2nd round pick next year. Newsflash: there will be good players that you like in the next draft. You'll still be trying to build a winner. Yet the seeming conventional wisdom is a second round pick this year is worth a 1 next year and a third round pick this year is worth a 2 next year. To me, why not just trade away your picks every year to some team? The first year you won't have your picks, but then every year thereafter you will have higher quality picks than you would otherwise, perpetually. So as far as the Browns' trade, it stinks. The first round next year is the best pick of the three traded. No way in hell is it 23 or lower and it's probably top 10. So you trade a second round pick to get an inferior pick? That's awfully foolish.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

To me, why not just trade away your picks every year to some team? The first year you won't have your picks, but then every year thereafter you will have higher quality picks than you would otherwise, perpetually. So as far as the Browns' trade, it stinks.

"Danny Snyder's Redskins"

4:54 PM  
Anonymous Dave S. said...

To answer your question about why the Browns would trade next year's #1 in exchange for moving up to draft Quinn: Because Quinn at #22 is amazing value. The Browns would rather move up this year to pick Quinn, the franchise QB they desperately need, and pay him a very reasonable salary, then have a high pick next year that they have to pay a fortune to. Basically, the team is gambling that taking Quinn now at a low-1st-rounder salary is preferable to gambling on a pick in next year's first round, and I honestly can't blame them. They legitimately gave their fans hope for the future today.

P.S.: I am by no means a Browns fan, but I just felt like I had to defend what they did.

On another note: I know everyone is killing the Dolphins for not taking Quinn, and rightfully so, but why the hell didn't the Jaguars take him, and why is nobody else asking this? It is pretty clear that Byron Leftwich is not a championship-caliber QB, and I think he only has 1 year left on his contract. David Garrard is ok, but why the hell would they pass up Quinn to take a defensive player when their defense is already really good? That team is a great QB away from really competing in the playoffs, and they passed up a shot at a potential franchise QB. It is amazing how poorly run some of these teams are.

8:12 PM  
Blogger Todd Martin said...

Excellent points Dave. I guess ultimately to me I evaluate draft trades based on the picks being exchanged, not the players. Even if there is a reason for one team to want a specific player, if the other team doesn't have the same need for that player I don't see why the first team should allow themselves to be held over the barrel.

As far as the Jags, I think they're high on Garrard and Leftwich to me has not yet proven to be a bust, so I can understand why they wouldn't feel the need to add a third QB. But that absolutely could come back to bite them if one of those two step up.

I had the NFL draft on in the background in the late 1st round and 2nd round while I was doing some exam prep, and I saw Anthony Gonzalez clips and thought, "that guy reminds me of Brandon Stokley." Didn't notice who drafted him or have any commentary on. And of course, I was just reading draft reviews and realized he was drafted by the Colts to play that role. Evidently a pretty good fit.

12:10 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And we'll see if Keyshawn can teach Dwayne the ropes.

1:17 AM  
Anonymous mean dean said...

I'll just put it this way. We had plenty of discussion over the value that was given up and received in that trade, but as a Browns fan, I've never been more excited about the team since they came back.

6:36 AM  
Blogger D. Ling said...

The Browns needed to make that trade because if they don't get better THIS year then Savage and Crennel will be out the door.
That is why #22 this year was more valuable then their 1st rounder next year.
It's not about the team's evolution, it's about self preservation.
The Ravens blew a great opportunity to get Quinn, they'll regret that next year when McNair gets hurt and Kyle Boller is sitting there smiling like an 8 year old who has drank too many Cokes and throwing like one too.

4:42 AM  

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